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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd